[ ::: ♥Keep_Mailing♥ ::: ]™ DECLINING TECHNOLOGIES

DECLINING TECHNOLOGIES :  

In  1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.

what happened to kodak may happen to staubli soon.

What happened to Kodak might happen to a lot of industries in the next 10

years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3

years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000

pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies,

it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and

got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial

Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing,

agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the

biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company

in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in

understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in

the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already

don't get jobs easily. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so

far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared

with 70% accuracy when done by humans. There will be less laywyers in the

future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than

human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can

recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more

intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the

public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You

don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it

will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will

not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be

productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and

will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95%

less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2

million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one

accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one

accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the

evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies

(Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a

computer on wheels. Engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely

terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have  trouble because without accidents, the

insurance will become cheaper. Car insurance business model will weaken.

Electric cars will become mainstream from 2020. Cities will be less noisy

because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly

cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30

years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was

installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that

all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only

needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we

only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can

have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X prize will be announced this year. There will be

companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star

Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood

sample and your breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will

identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on

this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to

400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All

major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are

already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer

that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to

have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning

possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at

home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.

By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask

yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer

is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your

phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th

century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a

lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in

such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers

in 3rd world countried can then become managers of their field instead of

working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The

first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow

produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used

for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several

startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains

more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source"

(because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you

are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions

if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when

they are telling the truth and when not.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.

Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The

increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year

increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way

more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia.

Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone

has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan

academy for everything a child learns at a  school in the First World

countries.

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